NAR Predicts 4.71 Million Home Sales, Better Buyer Outlook in 2024

In 2024, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecasts a notable surge in existing-home sales, reaching 4.71 million—an impressive 13.5% rise from the projected 4.1 million in 2023.

At the national level, median home prices are predicted to remain relatively stable in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of minimal change. This trend contributes marginally to improved affordability due to escalating income levels.

Five major metropolitan areas—Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Nashville, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C.—are among NAR’s top 10 housing markets anticipated to have substantial pent-up housing demand in 2024.

During NAR’s Real Estate Forecast Summit, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun disclosed projections, envisioning robust market growth with 4.71 million home sales in 2024. Highlighting Austin, Texas, as the leading real estate market to watch, Yun foresees a 13.5% upturn in sales from 2023, with a median home price reaching $389,500—an increase of 0.9% from the present year.

Yun points out the potential for outperformance in metro markets across southern states due to swift job growth. He anticipates favorable gains in the Midwest region for its affordability factor. Furthermore, he predicts a stabilization in rent prices for the upcoming year, which could influence a stable consumer price index. Foreclosure rates are expected to remain historically low, constituting less than 1% of all mortgages in 2024.

The economic landscape in 2024 is predicted to showcase a 1.5% GDP growth, bypassing a recession, with a slower addition of 1.7 million net new jobs, down from 2.7 million in 2023 and 4.8 million in 2022. Amidst expectations of the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging at 6.3% post a late 2023 peak of over 8%, Yun foresees the Federal Reserve cutting rates four times to mitigate inflationary pressures in response to a deceleration in economic activity. Additionally, housing starts are projected to reach 1.48 million in 2024, including 1.04 million single-family and 440,000 multifamily units.

NAR has identified and ranked the top 10 real estate markets with the highest pent-up housing demand for 2024. These markets are expected to witness rapid recovery in home sales based on various economic indicators compared to the national level, such as increased “returning” buyers, moderated home price appreciation, enhanced affordability for renters aiming to buy homes, greater potential for sellers, reduced remote work, listings suitable for first-time buyers, robust job and income growth, a surge in high-earning millennial renters relocating to these areas, and a lower incidence of violent crime.